By Shayna Goldman, Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille

No team was busier this offseason than the Detroit Red Wings.

Jeff Petry, J.T. Compher, Justin Holl, Shayne Gostisbehere, Daniel Sprong, James Reimer, Klim Kostin, Christian Fischer — and of course Alex DeBrincat. That’s nine fresh faces to the lineup giving Detroit its deepest roster in years.

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The question is whether it’ll be enough and right now it doesn’t look likely.

The Red Wings should improve from last season and will be in the thick of the playoff race, but in a highly competitive East, the odds are unfortunately stacked against them. The Red Wings are better than they were a year ago, the problem is that it might not be enough to catch the 11 other playoff hopefuls in the East.

Read more: Finding hope for the NHL’s 10 most hopeless teams in 2023-24

The projection

Steve Yzerman put in a lot of work this offseason to clean up the Red Wings roster. It just didn’t lead to the big jump that some people might have expected. The Red Wings aren’t out of the woods yet, and it honestly doesn’t even feel like they’re that close either. Not unless a lot of things change this year — especially if the goal is building an actual Cup contender, not just a run-of-the-mill playoff team.

Those are all things that do have potential to change and if you squint hard enough it’s not difficult to see that “14 percent” chance of making the playoffs turn into 100 percent. It’s just that there are a lot of teams above Detroit in the East that don’t need as many things going unexpectedly right for them.

Maybe it all works out with young players taking much bigger steps than expected while all the new faces mesh well into the system. Maybe. From this vantage point, there are just a few too many ifs and buts to suggest this is a clear-cut playoff team. In what feels like a make-or-break year for the “Yzerplan” that’s a worrying sign.

Detroit does not have a bad team. This is the best Red Wings team in years where the playoffs are an actual possibility. But that’s a low bar to clear for a Red Wings team that still needs to prove it’s actually a good team. On paper, they look below average to start.

Percentiles with the bar graphs are based on each player’s Offensive, Defensive and Net Rating relative to their time-on-ice slot, i.e. the first forward is compared to other first forwards only.

The strengths

The best thing Detroit has going for it is the best-supporting cast it’s had in years. It better be with how much the Red Wings have spent in back-to-back summers revamping it. That doesn’t make it playoff-caliber, though. It just means the bar has been that low for the Red Wings in recent years.

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Could the Red Wings have shot higher than J.T. Compher in free agency this year? Absolutely. His offensive game seriously lacks, and he won’t have the caliber wingers that the Avalanche boast to balance that out. But does he fit a defensive need after Andrew Copp underwhelmed in his first season in Detroit? Absolutely.

Compher brings an element of utility that’s going to be useful to his new team. He can slot anywhere in the lineup and be leveraged in any situation. On a team with young, up-and-coming players, it helps to have someone to absorb whatever usage is necessary. After a surprise Selke-caliber season, his plus-two Defensive Rating leads Detroit’s forward group.

Elsewhere in the top six, David Perron is still a solid contributor. It’s easy to look at his signing last year and think bringing in a veteran of his status is more of a “right-now” move. But at the end of the day, every team needs an element of scoring and he brings exactly that, both at even strength and on the power play.

So does Daniel Sprong, albeit in a lesser role. His 3.66 points per 60 in all situations last year ranked 12th in the year, while playing in a bottom-six capacity on a balanced Kraken team. That doesn’t mean he’s the 12th-best scorer in the league — that production is relative to his minutes, after all. But strong teams need depth scoring which is exactly what Sprong brings to the table. There’s probably more playing time for him in Detroit compared to Seattle, so whether that holds up will be something to watch. But he measures up as well as the Red Wings could hope as their ninth forward.

Detroit actually has a few bright spots in its bottom six. Robby Fabbri, and Klim Kostin should provide depth scoring of their own, while Jonatan Berggren should be able to build on a solid rookie season. The most interesting player in the bottom six though is Michael Rasmussen, Detroit’s ninth pick in 2017. The towering 6-foot-6 forward scored at a second-line rate last year while being one of Detroit’s better play-drivers. A big breakout from him could help push the playoff math forward.

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With the additions of Jeff Petry and Shayne Gostisbehere, the forwards should have more offensive support from the back end, something that’s been desperately lacking the last few seasons. The latter needs his minutes managed a bit more, but could be a very good third-pair option who takes some power play time. Petry, on the other hand, has shown that he’s still effective offensively at this point in his career — though we’ll see how well he handles regular time with Ben Chiarot.

Chiarot’s presence on the top pair was a problem last year — shocker. That was luckily solved by Jake Walman, who was a revelation alongside Moritz Seider on that top pair. The 27-year-old has emerged as one of the league’s stingiest defenders and leads the Red Wings with a plus-three Defensive Rating. He’s a perfect partner for Seider as a strong puck-mover with strong off-puck instincts. Last year his relative impact on expected goals was plus-0.56, second among all defenders behind only Mattias Ekholm. He’s the real deal.

The weaknesses

Detroit has more strengths than usual thanks to a deeper roster that’s on the rise. But there are still too many weaknesses in key positions to consider the Red Wings anywhere close to a safe playoff bet.

Take DeBrincat: a potential 40-goal scorer is exactly what this roster was missing at the right price and the right age. He’s a good player, a true top-line talent. But he’s not a top-two forward on a playoff-caliber team — just look at Ottawa missing the playoffs last season with DeBrincat as its fourth forward for proof of that.

Last year DeBrincat’s finishing wasn’t where it needed to be, though there’s a chance he rebounds considering his scoring chance rate stayed consistent. Going from Shane Pinto to Dylan Larkin helps too and this will be a prime opportunity to show that he’s not just a one-dimensional complementary forward. It’s a big ask though, because it’s possible that what he showed in Ottawa wasn’t just a blip in his career.

One analyst, when asked about DeBrincat for this year’s Player Tiers, showed some worry about his game. “He’s a guy that came up quick, everyone didn’t know how to play him in the first couple of years. He got a lot of goals and was really successful,” the analyst said. “Then teams really figured him out and he hasn’t really adapted.”

Pair that with a center who hasn’t shown he can be a truly elite center, and there’s the potential for the top of the lineup to underwhelm.

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That’s why there’s pressure on the “Yzerplan,” at a certain point, the moves have to amount to something. Larkin and DeBrincat popping off would go a long way with that. And it extends past Larkin and DeBrincat, to their blue line.

A team ideally doesn’t need someone like Walman to be such a difference-maker on their franchise defense. But moving him to Seider’s left really did make an impact on the sophomore. In 546 five-on-five minutes with Chiarot and Seider paired, the Red Wings’ struggled defensively and that out-paced their offense to a 44 percent goals rate, with worse results. With Walman and Seider together, the team was about to break even in expected and actual goals. That isn’t exactly thrilling, which is part of the reason why Seider doesn’t measure up as an elite number-one defenseman right now.

But he at least has potential to bank on. He’s someone who sparked a lot of conversation in this year’s Player Tiers.

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“Moritz Seider is going to be a top-five ‘D’ in the league for years,” one coach said. “As that team continues to get better, he will be the guy who is the reason why. He’s a pillar … The team is going to take off because of him.”

Another executive echoed with high praise, despite his struggles this past year “He has potential, and this is high praise, to be the next Hedman.”

Having potential is one thing, reaching it is another. The Red Wings’ ceiling is only so high until he does. Until proven otherwise, he’s a below-average number-one defenseman.

go-deeper

A deeper blue line would help support Seider if he isn’t ready to take his game to the next level. But having players like Chiarot (whose minus-eight Net Rating is one of the league’s worst marks), Justin Holl, and Olli Maatta doesn’t exactly inspire. On a stronger team, each one would probably be slotted more appropriately for their level of play. In Detroit, any of them could be tasked with high-leverage situations so the top pair isn’t buried in their minutes.

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Up front, there are issues beyond Larkin and DeBrincat as many of the team’s high-usage players don’t move the needle much. Compher is a nice add for his defensive ability, but his offense is a non-starter for a player so high in the lineup. He was invisible for Colorado in the first round in that regard. Andrew Copp poses a similar problem though he’s even weaker at both ends of the ice. Lucas Raymond has a bit more offensive bite and the promise of growth that comes with being picked fourth three seasons ago — it just doesn’t look like enough yet. Especially as Detroit’s weakest defensive forward.

There’s a chance for breakouts throughout the lineup, but the keyword there is chance. There’s never a perfect guarantee when roster building, even with a loaded roster. That’s why the games are played. But the deck is even more stacked against a team with that many skaters needing to take a leap forward. That’s especially true on this team, when they have such a big hill to climb from last year.

The Red Wings legitimately struggled in all aspects of the game last year. At five-on-five, this was a bottom-five team in shot, scoring chance, and goal generation. The power play was below league average, too. And this team rated in the bottom half of the league defensively as well, without the most stable goaltending to mask that.

The problem there was Ville Husso’s workload. He showed promise early on in the season, but 56 games proved to be far too many games for Husso. His game completely fell apart at season’s end allowing 13.7 goals above expected in his final 10 games thanks to an .846 save percentage. He was right at break even before then.

That should change for the better this season with the additions of James Reimer and Alex Lyon, though that’s far from the most inspiring depth in the league. Even if the end of the season was just a cold streak for Husso, he’s still expected to be a below-average starter for Detroit. And if he’s worse than that, the backup plan likely won’t be strong enough to salvage the season.

The wild card

Is Lucas Raymond ready for a breakout?

Plenty was made of Seider’s quasi-stagnation in Year 2, but he wasn’t the Wings’ only sophomore who slumped. Raymond, after a 23-goal, 57-point rookie year, experienced virtual across-the-board drops in 2022-23. He produced less (a drop in five-on-five points/60 from 1.73 to 1.23). He shot less (7.04/60 to 5.67). He was worse as a play-driver (47.7 expected goals percentage to 42.5). He was worse as a playmaker.

He also played nearly the entire season as a 20-year-old. Growing pains happen; if the Wings forgot, last season was a reminder. Figuring out how best to harness Raymond’s creativity and skill — not just turning it into goals, but consistently driving play — might be the most important task facing Derek Lalonde and his staff. It ties in directly with their biggest offseason addition (DeBrincat) and hints at one of their biggest problems (an ongoing lack of offensively talented centers). The best way to get Raymond back on track would be, once again, to play him with Dylan Larkin, but that’s a tougher fit than you probably think.

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Could Raymond play on a line with Larkin and DeBrincat, or would that be one short winger too many? Could either of them handle playing on their off side? Would it be worth separating him from Larkin? Is DeBrincat locked in as Larkin’s wing in the first place? Playing with Andrew Copp would mean tougher minutes; could Raymond handle those and still be an effective offensive player? And how does J.T. Compher figure into all this?

That’s a lot of questions without any answers. Raymond clearly has the ability necessary to make the leap, but it’s also tough to look at Detroit’s talent distribution and make any hard bets. Someone is going to go hungry, and it might be him.

The best case

Larkin and DeBrincat have immediate chemistry and explode, Moritz Seider looks Norris-caliber and Lucas Raymond has a breakout season. It’s enough star-power to get the Red Wings comfortably into the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

The worst case

Larkin and Debrincat don’t click and aren’t strong enough to be the top two forwards on a playoff team. The new recruits don’t move the needle, the kids don’t progress, and the Red Wings get crushed under the massive weight of the East to another lottery finish.

The bottom line

For better or worse, this feels like a pivot year in Detroit. If it works, it’ll be for reasons that set them up for the next few years. If it doesn’t — particularly if we don’t see Seider and Raymond resume their upward trajectory — it’ll be time to ask some tough questions.

This is, no doubt, the best team we’ve seen in Detroit since Yzerman took the reigns. He isn’t the only one with a plan, though. Other teams have spent the last few years getting better too, both in the Eastern Conference and in Detroit’s own division, and they seem to be farther down the road to relevance.

References

How these projections work

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Understanding projection uncertainty 

Resources

Evolving Hockey

Natural Stat Trick

Hockey Reference

NHL

All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

Read the other 2023-24 season previews here.

(Top photo of Moritz Seider, Jake Walman and Lucas Raymond: Dave Reginek / NHLI via Getty Images)

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