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As always, any referenced dynasty Trade Analyzer, player ranking or ADP data comes from DynastyLeagueFootball (DLF), the oldest and largest dynasty-centric site on the planet.
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Let’s get to it!
I currently have the worst record in the league (half-PPR, 1QB), but with a matchup against the second worst (and the clear worst roster) looming. Please give me hope that Pick 2 or 3 in the 2024 rookie draft will be good consolation prizes to Marvin Harrison Jr. — Matt F.
Firstly, I’ll be doing a rookie mock draft article here before too long so stay tuned for that. As far as this next year’s draft, as long as you aren’t in need of running back, you’re in luck! This looks like a stellar year for young talent, especially at receiver. Marvin Harrison Jr. is certainly the top asset, but great receiver prospects going to lesser NFL situations isn’t always ideal. Sometimes you want to see those good receivers fall to better teams, and 2024 could be the best receiver class we’ve ever seen. Combine that with a top tight end (Brock Bowers), at least two top-tier quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye) and a running back class with good size, and there’s a lot to be excited about. Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze, among others, should give you great options at 1.02 or 1.03.
Any tips for back of the roster churn for a rebuilding team? Anyone under the radar to potentially stash? — Spenser C.
My next article coming out in the next week will be highlighting some names to stash at the bottom of your roster. In the meantime, I’ve been picking up shares of A.T. Perry (NO) and Dontayvion Wicks (GB).
In a SuperFlex salary cap league of $500, I have Jalen Hurts at $44, Joe Burrow at $77, Anthony Richardson at $63 and Daniel Jones at $10. Looking to flip Richardson for a young WR. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are both at $20. Are either of them enough in return?
I think you are targeting the right type of players, especially in receivers who can give your roster some legs over the long haul. I also like your approach of moving Richardson for value. Players like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, Olave and Wilson would be my targets. Just make sure you get known production in return for Richardson’s value.
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Who’s a great late-season stash for 2024? — Ryan C.
Stay tuned as I will be having an article coming out next week highlighting late-season stash targets. I mentioned a couple names above and I’ve also started adding Isaiah Spiller (LAC) on the chance the Chargers want to see what they have in him ahead of Austin Ekeler departing in 2024.
How do we evaluate Kyren Williams for dynasty? Should I look to sell high now (deadline this week) or can he really be a Top 15 RB going forward? — Nickolas B.
That’s a great question. Williams was a rising prospect before he had a terrible NFL Combine ahead of the draft. Firstly, Sean McVay is so mercurial as a head coach, it’s hard to say how he values his running backs. Personally, I’ve been trading away all running backs playing for McVay. I’ve grown tired of the guessing game. Can he be a Top 15 RB? Yes. Am I counting on it? No. If Williams is a surplus player on my team, I’m checking his return value. If I can get a quality receiver or a projected top 8-10 pick in the 2024 rookie draft, I’m moving him. But if I don’t get value I like in return, I’ll roll with Williams and hope for the best.
What “duds” this season would you be targeting in the offseason as a potential “steal”… whether it be a change of scenery (CEH) or coming back from an injury filled season (Tee Higgins). And vice versa, which “hyped” guys would you sell? Examples being Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, etc. — Ron H.
That’s a bit long for a mailbag here but there will be another deep-stash article coming out within the next week and I’ll be following up with another article of more mainstream players I’m targeting for 2024. Giving you one name at each position I’m targeting:
QB: Justin Fields — He could be moved this offseason or benefit from an incoming receiver.
RB: Jordan Mason — I think he’ll be moved, and he has starting chops in my mind.
WR: Cedric Tillman — Have been holding since the draft and his time has come.
TE: Michael Mayer — I’m buying now as his snaps are rising and he’s underperformed.
Who would you rather have as a keeper long term: Jonathan Mingo, Michael Wilson or Marvin Mims? — Justin U.
This is closer than most would believe. Wilson has impressed me but I don’t see the dynamic I want for a long-term producer. Mims has the dynamic I like but needs to stay healthy. I think he has an opportunity in that offense to produce. I do like Mingo’s size and opportunity as well, but Mims would be my choice here for upside.
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How heavily would you value a top QB in a 12-team, 1QB league? Do you view the position as more of a luxury or a necessary component to actually competing? — Hunter L.
The dynasty community is finally coming around to my line of thinking. Once you have a top quarterback, you are set for a very long time and don’t need to think about the position. I always retain my second-round rookie selections on teams where I know I need to address the position. At the same time, I’m not afraid to spend a back-half of the first round selection on a quarterback like I did with Richardson this year. I prefer to trade away a late-first for a top name if I can. In short, I believe in over-weighting the quarterback position until I have one on my roster.
Keaton Mitchell dynasty value. — Alex K.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, as they say. I see him much in the same way I saw Justice Hill in that offense. I think they have a need to get him more touches but I don’t trust the Ravens’ running back room, much like I don’t trust the Patriots’ receiver room. Too much committee, not enough consistency. If I roster Mitchell, I’m holding. Otherwise, I’m not seeking to add. He’s ranked as DLF’s RB75 and while I think that’s too low, it shows the risk.
Thoughts on Texans WRs? Do you prefer Nico Collins or Tank Dell straight up? Are they buys? — Owen B.
This will probably ruffle feathers but if I’m building a dynasty squad for the long haul, I’ll take Collins. I believe in size and production as an indicator of long term value. What Dell has done has been phenomenal and he’s tough not to like but I usually steer clear of the DeSean Jackson types because they tend to be too inconsistent. As NFL schemes adjust, Dell should find it to be tougher sledding ahead. That all said, both players look great and this could fall either way — it’s very close in my book.
Which players currently out for the season, but likely still on fantasy rosters, should be targeted via trade? Conversely, which players on IR should managers move on from. — Matthew K.
I’ve been trying to acquire Anthony Richardson, Mark Andrews and Nick Chubb. I’ve been trying to move on from J.K. Dobbins and Mike Williams. I’ve been price-checking on Deshaun Watson while outright dropping Cam Akers.
I can keep four players, with no draft penalty attached. How do you go about valuing injured players with high ceilings against consistent producers with lower ceilings? For example, I have De’Von Achane, Rhamondre Stevenson and James Cook. If I keep one, how to choose? Same for Puka Nacua vs. Garrett Wilson, Tank Dell vs. Tee Higgins, Anthony Richardson vs. everyone. — Justin N.
First, understand that none of us have a truly clear crystal ball that provides perfect results. Second, there are as many dynasty coaching styles as there are players in the league and your question is really about valuation style into the competitive nature of your team. It could be different based on how your team looks. I value production over hype but that’s not to say that hype can’t turn into “ceiling.” For your running backs, I value them in that order. I usually prefer a three-down skill set, though Achane’s upside is enough for me to take the risk. At receiver, I never value the flash over what I already know. I won’t keep Puka, an extreme exception, over Wilson. Same goes for Tank vs. Tee. Richardson isn’t a QB1 until he proves it and I’m valuing him as a high-ceiling QB2.
Need a dynasty roster doctor.
QBs: C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence
RBs: Bijan Robinson, James Cook, Tyler Allgeier, Rico Dowdle, Ty Chandler
WRs: Chris Olave, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Drake London, George Pickens, Noah Brown
TEs: Michael Mayer, Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson, Pat Freiermuth
I’m middle of the pack and still rebuilding. What’s the best move to add RB value? Move DJ Moore? With RB shelf life and volatility, how do you build RB depth? — Jon T.
Difficult to answer in the format of a mailbag. Overall, I like your team. In short, I’d move Moore or London for a known running back or 2024 first-round selection. This next draft is very receiver focused along with Brock Bowers (TE) and no NFL first-round running backs. That will present an option for late-first picks, possibly taking the first running back off the board somewhere around 1.06 to 1.08. There are enough interesting size-speed prospects. Hopefully you still have your 2024 picks. Move Moore or London plus that pick for a top back, or lay in the weeds late in the first round of your draft. It’s going to be a big free agent year at RB as well.
What’s fair value for a lower-tier starting QB like Kenny Pickett or Russell Wilson in a SuperFlex best ball league? — Randall F.
That’s too hard to call because it’s going to be very coach/team dependent. I don’t value them much differently than I do in non-best ball leagues with a very similar eye toward upside potential. In that case, Wilson could be valued as a high QB2 while Pickett is going to be valued as a back-end QB2 with future risk.
QB: Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield
RB: Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, D’Andre Swift, Raheem Mostert
WR: Drake London, DJ Moore, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk
TE: Mark Andrews, Michael Mayer
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I’ve got the fourth-highest points in my 12-team, half-PPR, SuperFlex league, but I’m about to go 6-6 and the No. 7 seed. The 5/6 playoff spots are pretty much locked up. At what point do I just accept that luck isn’t on my side and look to trade an older RB like Mostert who could obviously make a big difference to a contender in the playoffs? And what sort of value should I be looking for? A second rounder? Maybe a young WR like Demario Douglas, Marvin Mims, or Treylon Burks? I don’t have a 2024 first rounder, but I have an early second (likely 2.02), two thirds, and a fourth. — Mark G.
The point is now! Once you are confident that the playoffs are out of reach, you need to assess and move. Don’t delay, as others are doing the same. All your RBs outside of Hall can be shopped and the same goes for Cooper and Kirk. Shopping doesn’t mean you have to sell or buy, it just means you are assessing. Overlay that with next year’s draft class, in this case a good looking wide receiver class, and determine if it merits a trade or two. In the case of Mostert and maybe Cooper, the time is now.
How do you value second-year receivers who have shown flashes, like Jahan Dotson and Christian Watson, but who are less intriguing than they were in preseason. Are they sell-high or buy-low candidates? Or both? — Matt F.
It all depends on what the cost is or what I can get in return. I’m not a serial trader and I don’t trade away production easily. I’m more willing to trade away unknown for known. In my experience, the unknown aspects of dynasty often have an exceedingly high cost but pan out far less often than the known aspects. I like both Dotson and Watson as buy-low candidates but only if the cost is palatable.
Let’s say you’re a contender, and another contender comes to you wanting to trade for one of your older-yet-still-a-roster-pillar studs? Are you more inclined to squash trade talks with them so you don’t hurt your own chances to win? Or are you open to a deal but maybe make the other manager pay a “contender tax” of sorts? (Keeping offers and trade talks friendly, of course). — James W.
If I’m a contender then something is working. When something is working, I tend not to fool with it, especially if there’s a chance I could be making a fellow contender stronger. If someone is willing to overpay, I’m willing to look harder at the deal. Or, if someone is valuing one of my players more highly than I do, I may be willing to deal. More often, however, I shut down trade talks because neither of those other qualifiers are likely to be present.
How should managers evaluate De’Von Achane at this point? With the injuries, is it worth trading him for a mid-late first rounder? Or is his ceiling too high to let him go?
My issues with Achane have nothing to do with his dynamic talent but everything to do with his ability to remain healthy and carry a significant load in the NFL, which is prioritizing greater committees. So far, he’s shown more upside than I expected, but my fears of role and injury are also present. To me, he’s still in the late-first discussion if he’s a surplus player on my team. Next year’s draft is receiver heavy with a couple of running backs with size. Those backs should go in the second-half of the first round. Generally speaking, I don’t like trading known for more unknown. Achane is tricky and I’m likely to hold him.
Hope you enjoyed this dynasty mailbag. If you didn’t see your question, ask it in the comments and I’ll be sure to respond.
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As always, be happy, be well and, please, be good to each other!
(Photo of De’Von Achane: Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
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