Each year, the NFL Draft contains imperfect prospects who force evaluators to scout outside the box.
NFL teams have certain thresholds and benchmarks for everything from arm length to age, and they change position by position. However, in every draft class, there are certain prospects who force teams to reconsider what has historically translated to the pro game.
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In the last draft, a quarterback with rare size (Bryce Young) went No. 1, a 166-pound cornerback (Emmanuel Forbes) landed in the top half of Round 1 and a 188-pound running back (De’Von Achane) is lighting up pro defenses as a rookie.
I’m not saying that betting on the exception instead of the rule is a fail-safe strategy, but I do think each case should be examined on an individual basis. For some players, it makes sense to bet on what they do well, not be scared off by where they’re limited.
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Here are 11 prospects eligible for the 2024 NFL Draft with something in their profile that makes them an outlier and complicates their draft projection — and a look at what could make them an exception.
What makes him an outlier?
You don’t need to know Sainristil’s jersey number (No. 0) when watching the Michigan defense, just look for the smallest Wolverine on the field. According to NFL scouts, Sanristil’s verified measurements are 5091 (5 feet 9 and 1/8 inches, listed as height/weight numbers for the NFL Draft) and 182 pounds.
There were 36 cornerbacks drafted in ’23, but just two were under 5-10, and both were Day 3 picks (Clark Phillips III and Tre Tomlinson).
What makes him an exception?
Sainristil is also easy to spot because of how fast and aggressive he plays. Aside from his athletic traits (he should test well, including a 40-yard dash in the mid-4.4-second range), Sainristil is basically a player-coach for the Michigan defense. His competitive intangibles and ability to raise the level of his teammates will make him a coaches’ favorite throughout the draft process.
A two-way player in high school, Sainristil played wide receiver his first three years in Ann Arbor before moving to the secondary in 2022. Playing primarily as the nickel, the Massachusetts native leads Michigan in passes defended (seven) and interceptions (three).
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Most will look at Sainristil’s size and expect him to be a Day 3 pick, and he’ll likely even be off some boards because of his size. But I’ll bet his athletic traits and competitive profile get him into the top 100 picks in April.
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What makes him an outlier?
Length is obviously important in hand-to-hand combat in the trenches, and that’s where Newton falls a tad short — especially for a prospect in the first-round conversation.
According to NFL scouts, Newton’s arms measured right at 32 inches in the spring. Over the last eight years, there have been 44 defensive tackles drafted in the top 70 picks, but just two of them (Calijah Kancey and Ed Oliver) had arms at 32 inches or shorter.
What makes him an exception?
After ranking second among defensive tackles in pressures last season, Newton (No. 4 in the clip below) leads all interior linemen with 33 pressures in 2023. Against Wisconsin on Saturday, he had a season-high eight pressures, one sack and a forced fumble plus made several plays versus the run.
Newton is quick off the ball and attacks gaps with power and fluidity, which makes it tough for blockers to slow him down. His arms might not be long, but his hands are active and controlled, allowing him to execute various snatch/pull techniques to use the weight of blockers against them.
Get ready for the “he’s too undersized” narratives that are coming as we get closer to draft weekend, but smart teams will see a disruptive presence who belongs in the top 25.
What makes him an outlier?
For offensive tackle play in the NFL, hand usage and timing are far more important than arm length. But NFL teams still look for 34-plus inches when it comes to arm length for OT prospects.
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Not only does Barton fall short of that benchmark, he’s also below the 33-inch minimum many teams set. NFL scouts have measured his arms at 32 5/8 inches, which would mean an automatic move to the interior for several teams. It feels like we have his conversation in every draft class — last year, it was over Peter Skoronski, who made the move to guard as a rookie for the Tennessee Titans.
What makes him an exception?
Now in his third season as the Blue Devils’ starting left tackle, Barton has plenty of quality tape showing him blocking outside on an island. An outstanding athlete, he is quick out of his stance with the smooth lateral footwork to match edge speed. And once he makes meaningful contact, Barton looks stronger than he did last season and has a stubborn grip to keep rushers occupied.
At 6046 (6 feet 4 3/4 inches) and 311 pounds, Barton looks the part, even if his arms fall short of certain thresholds. Personally, I think Barton’s talent will be maximized inside at guard or center. He played center as a true freshman at Duke, so we have evidence he can handle those duties. Barton says he wants to play left tackle in the league, though, and there are several in the NFL scouting community who think he should be given the chance.
Regardless, expect Barton to be drafted on Day 2.
What makes him an outlier?
At an NFL-verified 6-1, 276, Cross looks more like an undersized center than a stout defensive tackle. He doesn’t have the body to get much bigger, either, with shorter-than-ideal arm length (31 5/8 inches). And though he is certainly athletic, Cross won’t run a sub-4.75 40-yard dash like other undersized defensive tackles (see: Aaron Donald or Kancey), which would make it easier to overlook the size concerns.
#NotreDame DT Howard Cross III has been on FIRE the last two games (vs. Ohio St, Duke): 19 tackles, 12 pressures, 3.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1.0 sack.
This Duke tape is ridiculous… pic.twitter.com/uULz3cUt9E
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) October 4, 2023
What makes him an exception?
Cross won’t pass the eye test when he meets with teams in person throughout the draft process. But any evaluator who has studied his tape, specifically against Duke or USC, won’t be able to quit him that easily.
Cross has large, violent hands (10 5/8 inches) and understands how to leverage his power to create movement and separate from blocks. His short-area agility allows him to redirect and close, and even though he plays a ton of snaps, his candle stays lit. Cross is one of only four FBS interior defensive linemen with 25-plus pressures this season.
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Trust me, I understand why many will look at his unorthodox body type and say, “No thanks.” But the tape says he is a good football player. His father, Howard Cross, was a sixth-round pick in 1989 who exceeded expectations to put together a 13-year career with the New York Giants. It won’t be a surprise if Howard Cross III follows a similar path.
Dylan Laube, RB, New Hampshire
What makes him an outlier?
When NFL teams go shopping for offensive skill players, they usually don’t spend much time down the New Hampshire aisle. That’s not meant to be a shot at the UNH program, but it hasn’t had a running back, wide receiver or tight end drafted since World War II. However, that could change in April with Laube, one of the draft’s more intriguing sleepers.
What makes him an exception?
You can’t talk about the most versatile weapons in college football without including Laube in the conversation. He impacts the game as a runner, receiver and return man, and has accounted for 14 touchdowns (in four different ways) this season.
Laube lit up New Hampshire’s one FBS opponent, Central Michigan, for a program-record 295 receiving yards. This 36-yard catch came on fourth down in the fourth quarter; Laube scored two plays later to make it a one-possession game.
Though he has the “RB” designation as his position, Laube can just as easily line up in the slot or out wide as a receiver — some might argue that is what he does best. He can track, snare the ball outside his frame and be a real threat after the catch. Laube is legitimate as a draftable prospect.
What makes him an outlier?
On film, Cowing stands out for his speed but not as much for his size. This spring, scouts measured him at 5 feet 8 3/8 inches and 157 pounds. That shows at times, especially in contested windows where defensive backs can more easily affect the catch point.
JACOB. COWING. TOUCHDOWN.💥 @thenoah_fifita1 ➡️ @jaycowing_
23 yards to the house, Wildcats lead 10-0 with 5 min left in the 1st Qtr.
📺: ESPN pic.twitter.com/E5SPsGxHTK
— Arizona Football (@ArizonaFBall) October 8, 2023
What makes him an exception?
Be it Tank Dell, Tutu Atwell or several other examples, we have seen teams overlook size for speed when it comes to drafting receivers. And Cowing is cut from the same cloth with similar size and athleticism.
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With only one FBS offer out of high school, he is used to overcoming obstacles. After three years at UTEP, Cowing transferred to Arizona last season to be closer to his son, and he is on pace to lead his college team in receiving for the fifth straight year.
USC fans are familiar with Cowing after his four touchdowns against the Trojans a few weeks ago. But he belongs on the national radar. He led the Pac-12 in receptions last season and is tied for the conference lead with eight receiving touchdowns. His speed makes him a tough player to cover.
Ulysses Bentley IV, RB, Ole Miss
What makes him an outlier?
Bentley has always been a little overlooked because he doesn’t have the traditional frame for a running back. He had only a handful of offers out of high school, and the SMU coaches said he was around 160 pounds when he enrolled.
Bentley, who transferred from SMU to Ole Miss prior to the 2022 season, weighed 191 pounds for NFL scouts this offseason. While that gain represents his work in the weight room, he is still “undersized” for the position by NFL standards.
What makes him an exception?
Though he doesn’t have a traditional build, Bentley has dynamic skills with the ball in his hands. He can put his foot in the ground, drop his weight and make strong cuts before outrunning pursuit to the second and third levels of the defense.
Although Quinshon Judkins gets the bulk of the action for Ole Miss, Bentley’s touches have gone up with each game this season as the coaches wisely have looked to get his talent more involved. He is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and has yet to drop a pass this season. Bentley deserves midround consideration.
What makes him an outlier?
After dominating at the “star” position last season at Alabama, Brian Branch has been one of the NFL’s most productive rookies. He was drafted a full round later than he should have been, though, primarily because he fell short in both the size and speed categories.
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Moore took over that “star” position this season and has been solid. But, like Branch, he doesn’t have ideal size or speed by NFL standards — he is under 5 feet 11 and 200 pounds and is expected to run in the 4.57-4.62 range in the 40-yard dash.
What makes him an exception?
Moore isn’t the biggest or fastest, but he plays smart and controlled. Against the run, he breaks down in space and gets the ball carrier on the ground. In coverage, he takes smart angles and understands leverages as a slot corner or safety (see: the 2023 Texas tape).
Though stylistically similar to Branch, Moore isn’t on the same level as a prospect and likely won’t be drafted until Day 3. But his versatility and nickel experience make him NFL-ready for a role most teams will be looking to address on draft weekend.
What makes them outliers?
We have seen twin brothers selected in the same NFL Draft six times before, most recently last draft with Chase and Sydney Brown. But it is rare for a set of twins who play the same position to hear their names called on the same draft weekend.
The other reason why the Murphy twins could be viewed as outliers is their lack of length for their position. Ideally, NFL teams are looking for at least 33-inch arms for pass rushers (and preferably longer than that). According to an NFL scout, the Murphy twins measured in at less than 31 inches, which falls well below most thresholds.
What makes them exceptions?
Sub-31-inch arms will be a tough hurdle to overcome in the eyes of NFL teams, but the film is still what matters over everything. And the Murphy twins, who are from the Dallas area and transferred to UCLA from North Texas, have been consistently disruptive.
All draft folks know about their teammate, Laiatu Latu, who is a projected first-round pick. Latu leads the Bruins with 32 pressures, but Grayson is right behind him with 31 and Gabriel has 30. With those numbers, all three UCLA rushers rank top 15 nationally in that category.
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Bryce Huff (and his 31 3/4-inch arms) is one of the few NFL pass rushers who has overcome a lack of length to become a consistently productive pro. With their energy and initial bursts, the Murphy twins will be looking to follow a similar path.
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What makes him an outlier?
When on the field, Wilson is a difference-maker for the NC State defense.
However, the medicals are going to be an interesting part of his evaluation. Since his senior year of high school, Wilson has undergone double-digit surgeries (10, to be exact, according to The Fayetteville Observer), primarily to his shoulders and knee. Now in his sixth year at NC State, Wilson has missed multiple games in four of his first five seasons with the program.
What makes him an exception?
Wilson has started each of NC State’s seven games and ranks third in the FBS in tackles per game (11.6). Staying healthy for the remainder of this season will be important as he enters the draft process.
On tape, Wilson covers every inch of the field. His GPS numbers are ridiculous, both in terms of speed and ground covered. At 6-4, 238, he is a big athlete capable of driving downhill or turning and running in coverage.
Not many players could overcome the laundry list of injuries that Wilson has had to endure, which speaks to his toughness and mental resiliency. Some teams might be scared off by his injury history, and GMs will listen to the team doctors over anything else, but it will be easy to root for Wilson when he gets his chance in the NFL.
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(Illustration: The Athletic; photos: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images;
Christopher Hook, James Black / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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